Sustaining Impacts When Transfers End: Women Leaders, Aspirations, and...
Numerous evaluations show that conditional cash transfer programs change households' investments in their young children, but there are many open questions about how such changes can be sustained after...
View ArticleAmbiguity and the Tradeoff Theory of Capital Structure -- by Yehuda Izhakian,...
We examine the importance of ambiguity, or Knightian uncertainty, in the capital structure decision. We develop a static tradeoff theory model in which agents are both risk averse and ambiguity averse....
View ArticleThe Surprising Instability of Export Specializations -- by Diego Daruich,...
We study the instability of hyper-specialization of exports. We have two main findings. (1) Specializations are surprisingly unstable: Export ranks are not persistent, and new top products and...
View ArticleMacroprudential Policy: Promise and Challenges -- by Enrique G. Mendoza
Macroprudential policy holds the promise of becoming a powerful tool for preventing financial crises. Financial amplification in response to domestic shocks or global spillovers and pecuniary...
View ArticleIt's Not the Thought that Counts: A Field Experiment on Gift Exchange and...
One of the most important outstanding questions in fundraising is whether donor premiums, or gifts to prospective donors, are effective in increasing donations. Donors may be motivated by reciprocity,...
View ArticleIs The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant? -- by Martin Uribe
The unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981) states that in a fiscally dominant regime tighter money now can cause higher inflation in the future. In spite of the qualifier...
View ArticleJapan's Ultimately Unaccursed Natural Resources-Financed Industrialization --...
Japan's successful industrialization in the late 19th and early 20th century largely exhausted its then abundant natural resources. Rather than exemplifying rapid development in the absence of natural...
View ArticleThe Welfare Cost of Uncertainty in Policy Outcomes -- by Edward Schlee, V....
This paper proposes a simple index of the welfare significance of uncertainty in the public goods resulting as policy outcomes. Our measure is the ex ante compensation an individual would require to...
View ArticleIs it the "How" or the "When" that Matters in Fiscal...
Using data from 16 OECD countries from 1981 to 2014 we find that the composition of fiscal adjustments is much more important than the state of the cycle in determining their effects on output....
View ArticleDistributional Effects of Air Pollution from Electric Vehicle Adoption -- by...
We examine the distributional effects of changes in local air pollution from driving electric vehicles in the United States. We employ an econometric model to estimate power plant emissions and an...
View ArticleGeographical Distribution of Emergency Department Closures and Consequences...
We develop a conceptual framework and empirically investigate how a permanent emergency department (ED) closure affects patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We first document that large...
View ArticleTransforming Cities: Does Urbanization Promote Democratic Change? -- by...
Could urbanization lead to more democracy and better government for the mega-cities of the developing world? This paper reviews three channels through which urbanization may generate political change....
View ArticleFear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in...
Shale gas has grown to become a major new source of energy in countries around the globe. While its importance for energy supply is well recognized, there has also been public concern over potential...
View ArticleDo Good Reports Mean Higher Prices? The Impact of Hospital Compare Ratings on...
Previous research found that the initiation of Hospital Compare (HC) quality reporting had little impact on patient outcomes. However little is known about its impact on hospital prices, which may be...
View ArticleIs the American Public Corporation in Trouble? -- by Kathleen Kahle, Rene M....
We examine the current state of the American public corporation and how it has evolved over the last forty years. There are fewer public corporations now than forty years ago, but they are much older...
View ArticleA Shadow Rate New Keynesian Model -- by Jing Cynthia Wu, Ji Zhang
We propose a New Keynesian model with the shadow rate, which is the federal funds rate during normal times. At the zero lower bound, we establish empirically the negative shadow rate summarizes...
View ArticleLaws, Educational Outcomes, and Returns to Schooling: Evidence from the Full...
This paper uses a new dataset on state compulsory attendance, continuation school, and child labor laws with the 1940 full count Census of Population to estimate the returns to schooling for...
View ArticleFrom "Made in China" to "Innovated in China": Necessity,...
After more than three decades of high growth that was based on an exploration of its low-wage advantage and a relatively favorable demographic pattern in combination with market-oriented reforms and...
View ArticleLeaving Big Money on the Table: Arbitrage Opportunities in Delaying Social...
Recent research has documented that delaying the commencement of Social Security benefits increases the expected present value of retirement income for most people. Despite this research, the vast...
View ArticleImmigrants and Firms' Outcomes: Evidence from France -- by Cristina...
In this paper we analyze the impact of an increase in the local supply of immigrants on firms' outcomes, allowing for heterogeneous effects across firms according to their initial productivity. Using...
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